Combining qualitative, quantitative and structural dimensions in a longitudinal perspective. The case of network influence

Some research questions involve several dimensions. The most rewarding approach may be switching (under control) between the diverse methods and databases involved. Having recourse to different dimensions that form a system produces wider results but also opens up new questions. A survey on the evolutions of social networks and life transitions of young people draws an original design including contextual names generators, questionnaires and interviews in a longitudinal perspective. Young people interviewed every 3 years on 4 survey waves produced a total of 287 interviews and networks and a global amount of 10,804 relationships informed. This article aims to highlight this specific potential of integrating qualitative, qantitative and structural dimensions in an iterative process of data construction and analysis. The methodological argument is empirically illustrated with a focus on the thematic of influence of the network upon life orientations. It shows influence comes mainly from strong central ties but also from some peripheral isolated mates. The structural evolution reveals a general trend of dissociation of their ties the ones from the others when people are entering adult life, which makes influence from the network become more and more diversified.     

Commodity markets through the business cycle

From 2008 to 2011, commodity markets experienced growing attention from the banking industry for various reasons: the summer 2008 oil price swing, the price surge in an ounce of gold, or sharp variations in agricultural prices. As a consequence, can we hypothesize the existence of a global connection between commodities and economic cycles? If these recent events suggest that commodity markets are strongly related to the business cycle, this evidence goes nevertheless against the widespread intuition that commodity markets are a strong source of diversification in a standard cash–bond–equity portfolio. Based on a data-set from 1990 to present, this paper investigates this issue by (i) looking at the reaction of commodity markets to economic news, and (ii) using a Markov regime-switching model to analyse economic regimes and commodity markets as an asset class.     

Adaptive Performance: A New Scale to Measure Individual Performance in Organizations

As a component of overall employee performance, adaptive performance refers to the ability of an individual to change his or her behaviour to meet the demands of a new environment. The concept is relevant to firms that face especially complex and volatile business conditions. Research and practice have been hampered by a general lack of a widely available, psychometrically sound, multidimensional scale of adaptive performance that is applicable across a wide range of job contexts. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, we develop and evaluate a 19‐item scale measuring five dimensions of adaptive performance. Copyright © 2012 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

Quotas and equilibrium relative prices in the trade restricting country

This paper is concerned with the effects of international trade restriction through quotas. It is shown that a casual relationship exists between the fraction of licences distributed domestically, the terms of trade, and the domestic relative price of the importable.     

A note on tariffs,quotas and the Metzler Paradox: An alternative approach

Conclusions Under the given assumptions, the introduction of an import quota always results in a price increase of the scarce factor. This conclusion confirms that of Falvey [1975] that the Metzler Paradox cannot occur with import quotas. Moreover, we have shown this to be true regardless of the new terms of trade. The introduction of an import quota will, in general, lead to a lower welfare level. This holds for non-prohibitive protection in those situations in which the terms of trade either remain unchanged or worsen. If the terms of trade improve, a higher welfare level can be attained depending on the degree of the improvement and on the size of the quota. The development of the terms of trade can be used as an indication of the price increase of the scarce factor. The more favourable the new terms of trade for the trade restricting country, the greater the advantage accruing to the scarce factor. The effectiveness of the protective measures for distributional purposes coincides thus with the development of the terms of trade.     

Risk and the cross section of stock returns

This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our variable can be used to explain the cross section of returns in theoretical, numerical, and empirical analyses. Using Center for Research in Security Prices data, we show that a −1σ$-1\sigma$ to +1σ$+1\sigma$ change in our variable is associated with a 0.31% difference in average returns the following month (equaling 3.78% per annum). The results are statistically significant at the 1% level. Our results remain economically and statistically significant after controlling for stocks' market capitalizations, book-to-market ratios, liquidities, and the probabilities of information-based trading.     

A Meta‐Analysis of the Union–Job Satisfaction Relationship

The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic and quantitative review of the existing empirical evidence on the effects of unionization on overall job satisfaction. We conducted a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) with results from a pool of 235 estimates from 59 studies published between 1978 and 2015. The accumulated evidence indicates that unionization is negatively related to job satisfaction but is far from being conclusive. When primary studies control for endogeneity of union membership, the results of the MRA indicate that the difference in job satisfaction between unionized and non‐unionized workers disappears. These results suggest that reverse causation (i.e. dissatisfied workers are more likely to join a union) and time‐varying endogenous effects play a key role in explaining the relationship between unionization and job satisfaction.     

Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices

This article analyzes the modelling of risk premia in CO₂ allowances spot and futures prices, valid for compliance under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Similarly to electricity markets, a salient characteristic of CO₂ allowances is that the theory of storage does not hold, as CO₂ allowances only exist on the balance sheets of companies regulated by the scheme. The main result features positive time-varying risk premia in CO₂ spot and futures prices, which are strictly higher for post-2012 contracts (€6–9/ton of CO₂) than for Phase II contracts (€0–6/ton of CO₂). Contrary to Benth et al.'s (2008) for electricity markets, a positive relationship between risk premia and time-to-maturity is found in the EU ETS. As for relative differences between CO₂ futures and spot prices, CO₂ futures traded between + 1% (December 2008 contract) and + 33% (December 2014 contract) above spot prices during February 2008–April 2009. Contrary to Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) for the electricity market, a positive relationship between risk premia and the variance/skewness of CO₂ spot prices is found. The futures-spot bias to the EU ETS explains around 1–6% of the variance of CO₂ futures premia.